Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A new region was
numbered today as Region 480 (N20W26).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions with
isolated major storm conditions at high latitudes. These effects
are the result of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions for 16-17
October. Unsettled to active levels are expected for 18 October.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 096 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 033/048 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 030/042 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 025/030-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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