Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 October 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. The two spotted regions on the solar disk are stable and have not produced any significant activity during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm conditions. The elevated activity is a result of the continued rise in the solar wind velocity and sustained southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately at active to minor storm conditions with isolated major storm conditions possible. These effects are expected due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Oct 092
  Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        14 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  012/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  025/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  025/040-025/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%45%45%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

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