Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Only one minor B-class flare was observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Oct 098
  Predicted    13 Oct-15 Oct  095/100/100
  90 Day Mean        12 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  005/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  010/015-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm 15%20%20%
Major-severe storm 05%10%10%

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