Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Only one minor
B-class flare was observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 098 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 010/015-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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