Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. No significant changes were observed in any active region, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 471 (S07W70) may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one, with an increase to active and isolated minor storm conditions possible on days two and three due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 106
  Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  005/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%40%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%15%

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