Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. No significant
changes were observed in any active region, and no new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 471 (S07W70) may produce C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one, with an
increase to active and isolated minor storm conditions possible on
days two and three due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 106 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 005/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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