Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
471 (S08W18) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1.8 x-ray
event that occurred at 07/1743 UTC, along with numerous lesser
B-class flares. This region continues to show a gamma structure
near the central portion of the spot cluster. A slight increase in
penumbral coverage was noted today. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Activity is expected to be at low
levels. Region 471 remains capable of producing an isolated M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is responsible for the
elevated conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active conditions as the high speed
stream begins to wane on the first day of the period. Days two and
three should see predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 112 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 010/012-008/010-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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