Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 471 (S08E22)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 04/1547Z. This moderately complex region
has not shown much change over the past 24 hours and was responsible
for most of the low C-class flares this period. Old Region 464 (N05,
L=358), which is now behind the west limb, is still quite active,
producing a C2 flare and CME at 04/1317Z. New Region 474 (S14W49)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 471 is expected to continue producing C-class
flares and possibly an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 04/0600-0900Z. Solar wind speed remains slightly
elevated, but the IMF Bz was mostly northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day one. A high speed
coronal hole stream will likely produce unsettled to active levels
on days two and three. Isolated minor storm periods are possible on
both days.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 119 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 120/115/115 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 008/010-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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