Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 471 (S08E22) produced an M1/Sf flare at 04/1547Z. This moderately complex region has not shown much change over the past 24 hours and was responsible for most of the low C-class flares this period. Old Region 464 (N05, L=358), which is now behind the west limb, is still quite active, producing a C2 flare and CME at 04/1317Z. New Region 474 (S14W49) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 471 is expected to continue producing C-class flares and possibly an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period between 04/0600-0900Z. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated, but the IMF Bz was mostly northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through day one. A high speed coronal hole stream will likely produce unsettled to active levels on days two and three. Isolated minor storm periods are possible on both days.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
Class M 20%20%15%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Oct 119
  Predicted    05 Oct-07 Oct  120/115/115
  90 Day Mean        04 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  011/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Oct  010/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  008/010-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%35%
Minor storm 05%15%15%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%45%45%
Minor storm 05%20%25%
Major-severe storm 01%05%10%

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