Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 464 (N05W86) produced a C7/1f flare with minor centimetric bursts at 02/0656Z. This region continues to produce mostly minor C-class flares as it approaches the west limb. Region 471 (S08E42), which continues to develop in both size and magnetic complexity, produced a C4 flare at 02/1611Z. Regular plage fluctuations and surge activity were observed in this region throughout the period. No significant changes or activity were noted in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Region 471.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels at the beginning of the period. Solar wind IMF signatures are consistent with a transient passage, but solar wind speed has remained quite low (300 - 400 km/s); consequently, geomagnetic field impact was minimal.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Oct 125
  Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        02 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Oct  008/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  008/012-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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