Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 October 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 464 (N05W73) produced an M1/1f flare at 01/0451Z. Several other minor C-class flares were observed from this F-type, beta-gamma group as it approaches the west limb. A long duration C1 flare and filament eruption were observed in Region 470 (S12E18) at 01/1952Z. Region 471 (S08E53), a moderate size group with some magnetic complexity, produced considerable surging and plage fluctuations, but no significant flare activity. New Region 472 (S23W02) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Regions 464 or 471.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Extended periods of southward IMF were observed this period, but the potential impact on the geomagnetic field was offset by the very low solar wind speeds (260 -300 km/s).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods at high latitudes are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
Class M 30%20%15%
Class X 05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Oct 137
  Predicted    02 Oct-04 Oct  135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        01 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  003/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Oct  007/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  010/015-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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