Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 October 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 464 (N05W73) produced an M1/1f flare at 01/0451Z. Several other minor C-class flares were observed from this F-type, beta-gamma group as it approaches the west limb. A long duration C1 flare and filament eruption were observed in Region 470 (S12E18) at 01/1952Z. Region 471 (S08E53), a moderate size group with some magnetic complexity, produced considerable surging and plage fluctuations, but no significant flare activity. New Region 472 (S23W02) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Regions 464 or 471.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Extended periods of southward IMF were observed this period, but the potential impact on the geomagnetic field was offset by the very low solar wind speeds (260 -300 km/s).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods at high latitudes are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
Class M30%20%15%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Oct 137
  Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct  135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        01 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  003/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Oct  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  010/015-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/29M3.2
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X2.45
22014X1.45
32023X1.2
42024M3.2
52001M3.13
ApG
1199928G2
2200337G1
3201328G1
4200122G1
5199820G1
*since 1994

Social networks