Viewing archive of Monday, 29 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 464 continues to produce numerous C-class flares, including a long duration C3.8/Sf at 29/2004 UTC. The region may also have produced an impulsive C5.1 at 29/1610 UTC, although the flare is not optically correlated. A 24 degree filament at S20W28 erupted between 2219 and 2319 UTC on the 28th.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 464 may produce C- or M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one. There is a slight chance that a CME associated with an erupting filament observed on 28 Sep may cause unsettled to active conditions on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Sep 135
  Predicted    30 Sep-02 Oct  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        29 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  002/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Sep  005/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  005/008-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15%20%20%
Major-severe storm 05%15%15%

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