Viewing archive of Monday, 29 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 464 continues to produce numerous C-class flares, including a long duration C3.8/Sf at 29/2004 UTC. The region may also have produced an impulsive C5.1 at 29/1610 UTC, although the flare is not optically correlated. A 24 degree filament at S20W28 erupted between 2219 and 2319 UTC on the 28th.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 464 may produce C- or M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one. There is a slight chance that a CME associated with an erupting filament observed on 28 Sep may cause unsettled to active conditions on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Sep 135
  Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        29 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  002/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Sep  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  005/008-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%40%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%15%15%

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