Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 September 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 464 has produced several C-class flares, including a C1.3/Sf at 27/1143 UTC and a C1.3/Sf at 1204 UTC. This Region is stable in size and magnetic complexity. New Region 469 (S09W24) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 464 has the potential to produce C-class and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Solar wind speed from a coronal hole in geoeffective position continued to decrease to below 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions all three days. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible day one due to the last remaining effects of the coronal hole passing out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Sep 130
  Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep  130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        27 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  011/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Sep  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  012/020-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm04%04%04%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%15%10%

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