Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 464 (N04E09) produced several B and C-class flares during the period. This region has become more complex during the past 24 hours. Intermediate spots indicate that a gamma structure is present. The remainder of the numbered regions were fairly quiet during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Due to the growing complexity of Region 464, there may be a chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from active to minor storm levels. A favorably positioned high speed coronal hole stream is responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels due to the high speed stream effects. The disappearing solar filament from yesterday and the associated ejecta may further enhance the geomagnetic field, pushing activity into minor storm levels with isolated periods of major storming possible on day two of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Sep 133
  Predicted    26 Sep-28 Sep  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        25 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  027/033
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Sep  025/030
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  012/015-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 15%25%15%
Major-severe storm 05%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15%40%30%
Major-severe storm 10%20%10%

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