Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04E22) continues to be the most active region. It has increased in activity over the last 24 hours, producing a series of minor C-class flares, and elevating the solar X-ray background to approximately the B5 level. A 20-degree disappearing solar filament lifted off at 0532 UTC centered near S19W23. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low. There's a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 464.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A geoeffective coronal hole has maintained a high-speed solar wind stream, and sustained elevated geomagnetic field activity for the last couple of days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next day. Beginning approximately in the next 36 hours, the solar wind speeds should begin to relax in response to the passing of the coronal hole. But, within the next two days, the disappearing solar filament ejecta should impact the geomagnetic field causing a rapid increase in activity to minor storm levels with isolated periods of major storming possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Sep 134
  Predicted    25 Sep-27 Sep  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        24 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  030/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  015/020-015/015-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm 20%20%25%
Major-severe storm 05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%40%
Minor storm 25%25%40%
Major-severe storm 20%10%20%

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