Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Regions 464 (N04E36) and 459 (S11W85) have been the most active, but have not produced any significant flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 464 continues to show an increase in complexity and size, but currently has only a low to fair chance of generating any significant flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. A coronal hole induced high speed stream continues to be geoeffective, causing minor disruptions in the Earth's magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to active. The coronal hole which has induced the current high speed stream will continue to be geoeffective for at least the next two days, with a chance for isolated active to minor storm levels at high latitudes for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Sep 125
  Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep  125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        23 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  017/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Sep  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  015/020-015/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

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