Viewing archive of Monday, 22 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. Region 464 (N06E49) continues to be the largest group on the disk and showed slow growth during the past 24 hours. The region's magnetic structure is mostly bipolar, but there is some weak polarity mixing in the central part of the group, giving it a beta-gamma classification. New Region 465 (S02E50) was assigned today and is stacked just below Region 464. New Region 466 (S04E72) rotated into view today and appears to be a small, simple sunspot group. A CME was observed at 21/2130 UTC in LASCO-C2 coronagraph data and was centered very close to the solar north pole. The lack of corresponding disk signatures suggest that this was a back-sided event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There continues to be, however, a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 464.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. There was an interval of quiet to unsettled level activity from 21/2100 UTC through 22/0300 UTC, but conditions became disturbed (unsettled to active) from 0300 UTC through the end of the day. The activity is being driven by a continuing high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days. Conditions should be predominantly unsettled by the third day as the high speed wind stream is expected to be significantly reduced by that time.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 123
  Predicted    23 Sep-25 Sep  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  019/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  015/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 20%20%20%

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