Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
occasional low-level C-class flares. Most of these were from Region
464 (N03E62) which is the largest group on the disk with an area of
430 millionths. The other regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region
464.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, with a
period of minor storm at high latitudes from 1200-1500 UTC. High
speed solar wind from a coronal hole continues to drive the
activity. However, there was a gradual decline in wind speeds from
initial values of 650 km/s to day-end values of about 500 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past
24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 120 Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 034/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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