Viewing archive of Friday, 19 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The first was a C2 at 18/2151 UTC which
appears to have originated from a region behind the east limb near
S06. The second was a C1 at 1820 UTC which was associated with
activity in Region 461 (N17E21). Region 461 continues to be the
largest region on the disk. Region 459 (S11W27) is showing slow,
steady growth and possesses a predominantly East-West inversion
line.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to minor storm levels during
the past 24 hours. This activity was due to the continued influence
of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a favorably
positioned coronal hole. Solar wind velocity has shown a slow
decline over the past 24 hours, with initial values around 800 km/s
having decreased to day-end values around 675 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with some isolated minor storm periods
for the next two days as the current disturbance persists. A decline
to unsettled to slightly active is expected by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 111 Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 029/040 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 025/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 020/025-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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