Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 September 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A single C-class event, a C1 at 0801 UTC, marked the most significant activity of the day. There are five spotted regions on the disk and all are simple and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. The effects of the high speed -- 850 km/s -- solar wind continue again today. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels early, then calm to unsettled to active conditions by the end of the forecast interval. The influence of the high speed solar wind stream should diminish over the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Sep 109
  Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        18 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  035/061
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Sep  025/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  020/035-015/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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