Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 456, just beyond
west limb near S08, produced an M1 flare at 16/2224 UTC. Coronal
loops were seen in association with the x-ray event. Few flares have
occurred since then, as the disk has been quiet and stable. One new
region was assigned, Region 463 (N09E74).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. A brief
quiet period began the interval prior to the onset of the high speed
solar wind stream. The solar wind radial speed reached approximately
800 km/s at 1500 UTC. Its source is a large coronal hole located in
the western solar hemisphere. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two
days, then calming to be unsettled to active by day three. The high
speed stream should buffet the magnetosphere for the majority of the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 106 Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 015/037 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 025/060 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 025/040-020/025-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 55% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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