Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Frequent small x-ray
events occurred, but none exceeded the C2 level reached at 0218 UTC.
Two new regions were born on the disk. Regions 461 (N12W38) and 462
(S09W30) are both nascent C-class sunspot groups with small plage
fields.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from unsettled to major storm
conditions. A slow CME passed ACE late yesterday, bringing lengthy
periods of southward IMF. The solar wind radial speed did not exceed
475 km/s. This elongated transient is still being seen at L1,
causing minor to major storming as a result. The solar source of
this CME is not well known.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three
days. A high speed solar wind stream is due September 18, and likely
to further prolong the storming now occurring.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 099 Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 020/035-025/035-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 55% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 55% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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