Viewing archive of Monday, 15 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity continued low. Intermittent C-class subflares came from Region 456 (S08W88), now nearing the west limb. Newly assigned Region 460 (N16E75) rotated into view. Little else of significance occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist at the low level.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV geosynchronous electron flux remained high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled through 17 September. The effects of a high speed solar wind stream are anticipated 18 September, as active to minor storm conditions are probable.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Sep 097
  Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        15 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  003/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Sep  004/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  010/010-010/015-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%50%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%50%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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