Viewing archive of Monday, 15 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity continued low. Intermittent C-class
subflares came from Region 456 (S08W88), now nearing the west limb.
Newly assigned Region 460 (N16E75) rotated into view. Little else of
significance occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist
at the low level.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
geosynchronous electron flux remained high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled through 17 September. The effects
of a high speed solar wind stream are anticipated 18 September, as
active to minor storm conditions are probable.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 097 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 004/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 010/010-010/015-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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