Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 456 (S07W59)
produce a C2/Sf flare at 13/0742Z. This region has develeoped a
small delta magnetic configuration in the intermediate spots and
continues a steady growth phase. New Region 458 (S08W32) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 456 has the potential for C-class
activity and a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The high
speed stream of the past few days has ended with solar wind speeds
back down around 450 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one of the
forecast period. Weak CME effects are possible on day two and day
three with quiet to active levels expected.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 096 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 010/010-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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