Viewing archive of Friday, 12 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
flare was a B8 from Region 456 (S07W45) at 12/2000Z. A long
duration B7 X-ray enhancement occurred at 11/2237 and was correlated
with the two disappearing solar filaments. The first DSF was five
degrees long and lifted off around 11/2100Z near S25E05. The second
DSF followed the first and was along the same inversion line. This
DSF was about ten-degrees long and lifted off near S18E15. LASCO C2
imagery indicates a partial halo CME associated with the DSF's.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed remains elevated near 600 km/s and Bz has been predominantly
northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Activity on day one and
day two is expected to be quiet to unsettled. CME effects are
possible on day three with activity expected to be at unsettled to
active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 094 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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