Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 September 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels today. Region 456 (S09W19) produced several low level B-class flares today. This region has shown rapid spot growth over the past 24 hours. Magnetic analysis depicts a gamma structure in the trailing polarity of the spot cluster. Region 457 (S11W06) remains a magnetically simple complex with several small umbra visible in white light. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 456 is showing potential for C-class flare production.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A favorably positioned recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is responsible for the elevated conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to active levels through day one of the period. The return of quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Sep 099
  Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep  105/110/110
  90 Day Mean        10 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  017/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Sep  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  012/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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