Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels today. Several minor B-class flares were observed from Region 456 (S09W05) during the period. The remainder of the disk was quiescent throughout the period. Region 457 (S11E08) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly unsettled to active levels. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is responsible for the elevated conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through day one of the forecast period due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Activity on day one may be further enhanced due to a possible transient passage resulting from the C5 flare activity seen on 7 September. Days two and three should see a return to predominantly unsettled conditions as the recurrent coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Sep 096
  Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep  095/100/105
  90 Day Mean        09 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  004/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Sep  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  020/020-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%30%20%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%35%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

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