Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A long-duration C5 flare occurred at 07/1407Z in Region 450 (S17W63). This flare was characterized in H-alpha imagery by several prolonged bright kernels in ribbon form along a thin NW-SE filament. This event appeared to trigger a large 19 degree filament eruption near S38W18. Minor centimetric radio bursts also accompanied this event, and LASCO imagery revealed a large CME in progress. The X-ray flux was still considerably enhanced by the end of the period. Region 450 is a small, simple beta group in decay. The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to very low. The current X-ray flux levels are elevated following today's eruption, but are expected to return to the pre-flare background level early in the period. Very isolated low C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has declined to below 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one. A recurring high speed coronal hole stream will likely produce active to minor storm periods on days two and three. Activity on day three may be further enhanced by transient material from today's CME off the SW limb.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Sep 108
  Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep  100/095/095
  90 Day Mean        07 Sep 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  007/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Sep  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  012/012-015/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%40%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%50%
Minor storm15%20%30%
Major-severe storm05%10%15%

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