Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 453 (S23W69) produced occasional point brightenings and some weak surging, but was otherwise stable. New Region 455 (S16E32) was numbered today. No other significant activity was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to very low. Low C-class flares are possible from Region 453.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with very isolated active periods. A high speed coronal hole stream that has been in effect over the past few days continues to subside, declining to near 550 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one. A recurrent coronal hole will move into geoeffective position late on day two through day three and produce occasional active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Sep 105
  Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep  105/100/095
  90 Day Mean        06 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  009/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Sep  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  010/012-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%40%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%50%
Minor storm05%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

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