Viewing archive of Friday, 5 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred at 05/1301Z in Region 453 (S23W56). The fast growth rate observed in this region during the last period has now slowed. Some minor complexity was noted in this 200 millionths beta spot group. A relatively bright plage field is rotating on the SE limb, but there is no spot group visible yet. The remaining active regions were mostly stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Occasional low C-class flares are likely from Region 453.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind speed is in gradual decline as the associated coronal hole moves out of a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed declined from almost 700 km/s to near 600 km/s over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through day one as the current high speed stream subsides. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two before the onset of a recurrent coronal hole on day three. Expect occasional active periods as this coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Sep 108
  Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        05 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  015/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Sep  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  015/015-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

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