Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare was observed at 04/1449Z. The likely source of this small flare was Region 452 (S08W84). New Region 453 (S23W44), numbered today as a D-class beta group, emerged rather quickly over the past 24 hours and exhibited occasional plage intensity fluctuations. New Region 454 (S10E22) was also numbered today. The remaining active regions were either steady or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Isolated low C-class flares are likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. This weak disturbance is due to a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speeds began the period slightly elevated near 500 km/s, but gradually increased to 650 - 700 km/s by the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels through day one. The high speed solar wind speed is expected to subside by day 2 resulting in a return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Sep 112
  Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  115/120/125
  90 Day Mean        04 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  014/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Sep  018/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  018/020-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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