Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare was observed at 04/1449Z. The likely source of this small flare was Region 452 (S08W84). New Region 453 (S23W44), numbered today as a D-class beta group, emerged rather quickly over the past 24 hours and exhibited occasional plage intensity fluctuations. New Region 454 (S10E22) was also numbered today. The remaining active regions were either steady or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Isolated low C-class flares are likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. This weak disturbance is due to a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speeds began the period slightly elevated near 500 km/s, but gradually increased to 650 - 700 km/s by the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels through day one. The high speed solar wind speed is expected to subside by day 2 resulting in a return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Sep 112
  Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  115/120/125
  90 Day Mean        04 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  014/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Sep  018/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  018/020-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/10/26Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:271
Current stretch spotless days:44

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002M2.5
22002M1.9
32001M1.5
42002M1.3
52001M1.0
ApG
1199520G1
2199417
3200413
4200612
5199812
*since 1994

Social networks