Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 September 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. No significant changes have been noted for the active regions on the visible disk. After further analysis of the magnetic structure surrounding Regions 449 and 450, these regions have been combined into one region numbered as 450 (S16W07).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with C-class flares possible from Region 450 (S16W07).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active, due to the effects of high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind speed was steady around 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm conditions days one and two are possible from a high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Sep 111
  Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  115/125/130
  90 Day Mean        03 Sep 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  012/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Sep  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  015/020-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm40%30%30%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

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