Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. No significant
changes have been noted for the active regions on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with C-class flares possible from Regions 448 (N19W34)
and 450 (S18E14).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active, due to the effects of
high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind
speed peaked above 550 km/s during the period, and steadily declined
to 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm conditions are
possible from a high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 106 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 115/125/130 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 020/025-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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