Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Though several regions
continue to reside on the solar disk, none have demonstrated a
strong level of activity. A solar filament (near S12W27, 17 deg
extent) collapsed at 2022 UTC, but no material appears to have been
ejected from the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
None of the current active regions shows any signs of greater than
low potential for flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels with a
single period of major storming at 0600 UTC. The interplanetary
magnetic field continues to be oriented southward, and the solar
wind speeds continue to be elevated well above 450 km/s. During the
storm period, wind speeds were near 650 km/s. There is some
evidence in the energetic protons measured at the L1 orbit that a
small interplanetary shock passed at or near the major storming
period. The greater the 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next 24 to
36 hours. Near the end of the second day, a co-rotating interaction
region associated with a coronal hole should effect minor to major
storm levels, and continue as a high speed stream for the remainder
of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 114 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 012/012-020/020-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
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