Viewing archive of Friday, 29 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Though several regions currently reside on the visible disk, none show significant potential for greater than C-class flare activity. Two new regions; 450 (S18E66) and 451 (S10W65) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 450, 449, and 445 have a fair chance of producing C-class flare activity. No other activity is expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Two periods of minor storming occurred one at 1200 and another at 1700 UTC. The solar wind speeds continue to be elevated above 450 km/s, reaching over 600 km/s toward the end of the period. This combined with a sustained southward interplanetary magnetic field polarity have kept the geomagnetic field elevated. The greater than 2 MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days. By late on day three, geomagnetic activity should increase to unsettled to minor storm levels due to a co-rotating interaction region associated with a coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Aug 116
  Predicted    30 Aug-01 Sep  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        29 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Aug  012/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  010/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm 20%20%30%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm 20%20%25%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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