Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Three new regions were
numbered today; Region 447 (N16W05), 448 (N19E34), and 449 (S16E69).
None of the regions have shown any considerable activity beyond a
few small C-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 449 has been slightly active, and has a slight chance of
generating M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels.
Portions of the high speed stream from a departing coronal hole
remain, keeping the solar wind speeds above 420 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field continues to be oriented southward.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days. A
slight chance for minor storming exists for the next 24 hours due a
combination of the continued southward orientation of the
interplanetary magnetic field, and the sustained solar wind speeds
above 400 km/s.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 119 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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