Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Three new regions were numbered today; Region 447 (N16W05), 448 (N19E34), and 449 (S16E69). None of the regions have shown any considerable activity beyond a few small C-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 449 has been slightly active, and has a slight chance of generating M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. Portions of the high speed stream from a departing coronal hole remain, keeping the solar wind speeds above 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field continues to be oriented southward. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days. A slight chance for minor storming exists for the next 24 hours due a combination of the continued southward orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field, and the sustained solar wind speeds above 400 km/s.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Aug 119
  Predicted    29 Aug-31 Aug  125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        28 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Aug  012/018
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 20%20%20%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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