Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 436 (N07W60) continues to decline slowly as it nears the West edge of the solar disk. New Region 446 (S22E36) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. A single period of minor storming occurred at 1800 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Aug 126
  Predicted    28 Aug-30 Aug  125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        27 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  008/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Aug  012/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  012/012-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm 20%20%20%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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