Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 August 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 436 (N08W26) produced a C1/1f flare at 24/0417Z. Region 436 has shown some weak positive polarities in the trailing spots and some weak point brightings. There has been no significant activity and relatively little change in the other active regions since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 436 has the potential for C-class activity and a slight chance of M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. One period of minor storm conditions was observed at 24/1500Z. At 24/0000Z solar wind speed decreased to 600 km/s and has continued a gradual decline to 550 km/s by the end of the summary period. Bz continues to fluctuate between +/- 6 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions on day one of the period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two and day three.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Aug 116
  Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug  115/115/120
  90 Day Mean        24 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  026/044
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Aug  020/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  020/030-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%35%35%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm30%25%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

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