Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Activity was at very low levels. Region 441 (N11E19) produced a B6 flare at 23/0016Z. Region 441 has shown some growth in area coverage during the past twenty-four hours. Region 436 (N07W12) remains relatively unchanged from yesterday. At around 23/0100Z a 15 degree solar filament lifted off at N09W47. New Region 444 (N09E60) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Regions 436 and 441 have the potential for C-class flare and a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels. Solar wind speed was near 775 km/s for most of the period and Bz was predominantly southward with peak values near -6 nT. For a fifteen hour period today, activity was at minor storm levels with one period at major storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Active to minor storm levels are expected on day one as coronal hole high speed stream effects continue. By day two and day three high speed stream effects should begin to diminish with unsettled to active levels expected.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
Class M15%15%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Aug 120
  Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug  120/122/125
  90 Day Mean        23 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  025/043
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Aug  045/045
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  025/035-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%45%45%
Minor storm45%40%40%
Major-severe storm20%15%15%

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