Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred in the
last 24 hours. Region 431 (S10W84) is quietly rotating around the
west solar limb. Region 436 (N07E29) has changed little since
yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class activity is possible in Regions 431 and 436.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active for the next 24 hours. Mostly
active conditions are expected by 22 August in response to a
recurrent high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 112 Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 110/105/100 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 015/020-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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