Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 August 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 431 produced two M-class flares, an M2/1n at 19/0759 UTC and an M2/2f at 19/1006 UTC. The second M-flare was associated with a CME observed in LASCO images to be directed to the southwest. Region 436 (N08E42) produced a C5/Sf flare at 19/1826 UTC. Other disk regions were quiet. New Region 437 (S22W27) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. A small M-class flares is possible in Region 431 or 436.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from major storm to quiet levels. The CME-induced disturbance that occurred yesterday appears to have ended. The field has been at unsettled to quiet levels since about 19/0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 48 hours. Active conditions may start on 22 August in response to a recurrent high-speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Aug 117
  Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug  115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        19 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  046/086
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Aug  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  015/015-015/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%50%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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