Viewing archive of Monday, 18 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S10W52)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 18/0906Z as it continues to decay. Region
436 (N08E57) rotated further onto the visible disk revealing 160
millionths in area coverage and a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Activity is expected to be a low
levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class event from
Region 431 or Region 436.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm levels. Around
18/0100Z the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
turned southward to -15 nT with a peak near -25 nT. This shift in
Bz resulted in sustained minor to severe storm levels until
18/1500Z. Solar wind data are consistent with an interplanetary
transient. Re-analysis of solar data for the past few days indicate
activity in Region 431 (near center disk) late on 14 August as a
possible source of this storm.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Geomagnetic
storming is expected diminish on day one with isolated minor storm
levels possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day
two and day three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 116 Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 062/082 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
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