Viewing archive of Monday, 18 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S10W52) produced a C2/Sf flare at 18/0906Z as it continues to decay. Region 436 (N08E57) rotated further onto the visible disk revealing 160 millionths in area coverage and a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Activity is expected to be a low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class event from Region 431 or Region 436.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm levels. Around 18/0100Z the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward to -15 nT with a peak near -25 nT. This shift in Bz resulted in sustained minor to severe storm levels until 18/1500Z. Solar wind data are consistent with an interplanetary transient. Re-analysis of solar data for the past few days indicate activity in Region 431 (near center disk) late on 14 August as a possible source of this storm.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Geomagnetic storming is expected diminish on day one with isolated minor storm levels possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two and day three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M30%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 116
  Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  062/082
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%20%
Minor storm25%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%25%25%
Minor storm30%10%10%
Major-severe storm15%01%01%

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