Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 August 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S10W38) produced a C2 flare at 17/0426Z. Region 431 continues its slow decay and has simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 436 (N07E69) was numbered today
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with the chance of an isolated M-class event from Region 431.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet early in the day and active late in the day. At 1340Z, a shock passed the NASA/ACE spacecraft with a 100 km/s increase in solar wind speed to 540 km/s and an increase in B-total to over 20 nT. The Bz component of the IMF remained northward during this time, resulting in active conditions on Earth.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one due to residual effects from the shock. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two and day three.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
Class M30%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Aug 119
  Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug  125/130/125
  90 Day Mean        17 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Aug  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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