Viewing archive of Friday, 15 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S11W13) exhibited little change in the past twenty-four hours. This region continues to produce numerous C-class flares with the largest one a C7 at 15/0018Z. Region 431 has decreased slightly in area coverage but maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Analysis of Region 433's (S19E10) growth and development indicates that the trailing and leading spots are two separate regions. The trailing spots were numbered as New Region 434 (S23E02).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 431 has the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Two periods of active conditions was observed. Solar wind speed remains elevated near 600 km/s and Bz was mostly northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible while solar wind speed remain elevated. Wind speed is expected to decrease on day one.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Aug 131
  Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        15 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  012/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Aug  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  010/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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