Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Regions
424 (S18W67) and 431 (S13E30) produced several low level B and
C-class flares during the period. Region 424 has shown a continued
decay in penumbral coverage yet remains a beta-gamma magnetic class
group. Region 431 underwent little change today and also retains a
beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream that became effective early
in the period is believed to be responsible for the elevated
conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through day one of
the forecast period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream. A decrease to predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions are possible by day two as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 123 Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 020/035-012/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
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