Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels today. Regions 424 (S18W67) and 431 (S13E30) produced several low level B and C-class flares during the period. Region 424 has shown a continued decay in penumbral coverage yet remains a beta-gamma magnetic class group. Region 431 underwent little change today and also retains a beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream that became effective early in the period is believed to be responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through day one of the forecast period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. A decrease to predominantly unsettled with isolated active conditions are possible by day two as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Aug 123
  Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        12 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Aug  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  020/035-012/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%20%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%25%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm20%10%01%

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