Viewing archive of Monday, 11 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Several impulsive B-class flares comprised today's flare activity. Region 424 (S18W54) has shown a slight decrease in penumbral coverage today although it continues to exhibit beta-gamma characteristics. Region 431 (S13E43) also underwent slight decay and it too appears to possess a beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Region 424.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the first two days of the period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Day three should decrease to predominantly unsettled conditions as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Aug 129
  Predicted    12 Aug-14 Aug  130/125/120
  90 Day Mean        11 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Aug  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  020/020-020/035-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 20%20%10%
Major-severe storm 10%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 20%35%15%
Major-severe storm 10%15%05%

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