Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 425 (S09W43) produced a C3/Sf flare at 10/1020Z followed by a more gradual C2 flare that peaked at 10/1128Z. Region 431 (S13E56) produced an impulsive C1/Sf flare at 10/0127Z. This beta gamma region is showing some minor complexity in a spot group with over 250 millionths of white light coverage. Region 424 (S18W41), the largest region on the visible disk, exhibited only minor plage fluctuations this period. Remaining active regions were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. C-class flares are possible from Regions 424, 425, and 431.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A declining high speed stream with very low density and weak northward IMF Bz continues to buffet the Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind speed declined from near 700 km/s to below 600 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to active on day one. Another coronal hole high speed stream is expected to impact the geomagnetic field on days two and three. Expect unsettled to minor storm levels both days with isolated major storm periods on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Aug 131
  Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        10 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Aug  010/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  012/012-020/020-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%45%
Minor storm10%20%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%45%50%
Minor storm15%30%35%
Major-severe storm05%10%15%

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