Viewing archive of Friday, 1 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. A new Region 424 (S18E77) has been single-handedly responsible for a long series of C-class x-ray flares since it first appeared as a prominence on the East-limb on July 31st at approximately 2200 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There's a slight chance for an M-class flare from Region 424 (S18E77), but overall the disk will be relatively inactive.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A large polar-connected coronal hole which has maintained a high-speed solar wind stream, combined with a series of periods where the interplanetary magnetic field has been oriented Southward, maintaining elevated activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours. The coronal hole which has generated the current activity will pass beyond geoeffective range by the end of tomorrow, and the geomagnetic field should settle to quiet to unsettled levels for days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Aug 107
  Predicted    02 Aug-04 Aug  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        01 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  022/032
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Aug  025/034
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  020/025-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 20%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 20%10%10%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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