Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 July 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions remain quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Solar wind speeds began to increase today after 26/1830 UTC from around 400 km/s to above 560 km/s, with a sustained southward Bz. The probable source of this high speed stream is a E-W oriented coronal hole which is now rotating into a geoeffective location.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with periods of minor storm conditions. Effects of the high speed solar wind should persist through the period.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
Class M20%20%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jul 103
  Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul  105/110/120
  90 Day Mean        26 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jul  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  020/030-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%45%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

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