Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 417 (S22W91) continued
to produce several C-class events during the period. There was an
observed Type II radio sweep associated with a C1 at 24/0249 UTC.
This seems to be from Region 417 which was optically correlated with
the SXI imagery. Region 410 (S13W79) continues to decay but
maintains a little of its magnetic complexity and is a beta gamma
group today. A new region emerged on the disk toady and was
numbered as Region 420 (N11E79). This is most likely the return of
old Region 397 which produced several M-class events during its last
rotation.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 410.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 125 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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