Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 July 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were several minor C-class flares this period from developing Region 417 (S21W64), including a C5/1f at 22/0718Z. This region exhibited moderate growth during the period, in both size and magnetic complexity. Previously active Region 410 (S13W53) maintains its considerable size, but has simplified over the past 24-36 hours. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Regions 409 (N16W48), and 412 (N16W59).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare, most likely from Region 417.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speeds were steady at approximately 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
Class M40%35%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jul 153
  Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  150/145/135
  90 Day Mean        22 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jul  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  010/012-012/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%40%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

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