Viewing archive of Monday, 21 July 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The multiple C-class flare activity from Region 410 (S12W40) slowed down considerably during the latter half of this period. This large beta-gamma region is showing some decay. The central portion of the region is starting to fragment and the delta configuration no longer exist. Region 417 (S21W49) developed in both size and area and produced occasional minor C-class subflares. A 16 degree, NE-SW filament erupted from near disk center at around 21/0900Z. Faint ejecta was observed on LASCO imagery, but the event is not likely to be geoeffective. The remaining regions were uneventful.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Region 410.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed was near 600 km/s early in the period, which accounted for the active periods. Speed declined to near 450 km/s by the end of the period. The field responded to the declining solar wind speed by returning to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods over the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
Class M40%40%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jul 156
  Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul  155/155/155
  90 Day Mean        21 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  016/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jul  012/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  010/015-010/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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