Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 July 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class activity occurred, predominantly from developing Region 410 (S12W26). This region continues to grow and now exhibits a delta configuration near the central portion of the region. Growth in Region 412 (N16W34) has slowed, but a moderately complex Beta-Gamma configuration persist. New Region 417 (S22W36) emerged quickly over the past 24 hours and produced occasional C-class flares. New Regions 416 (S09W42) and 418 (S05W08) were also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 410 has the potential to produce M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A high speed solar wind stream with speeds exceeding 700 km/s is responsible for this disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods during local nighttime hours.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jul 157
  Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul  160/165/165
  90 Day Mean        20 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  020/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jul  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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