Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class activity
occurred, predominantly from developing Region 410 (S12W26). This
region continues to grow and now exhibits a delta configuration near
the central portion of the region. Growth in Region 412 (N16W34) has
slowed, but a moderately complex Beta-Gamma configuration persist.
New Region 417 (S22W36) emerged quickly over the past 24 hours and
produced occasional C-class flares. New Regions 416 (S09W42) and 418
(S05W08) were also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 410 has the potential to produce M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A high
speed solar wind stream with speeds exceeding 700 km/s is
responsible for this disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV electrons
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
during local nighttime hours.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 157 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 020/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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